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2017 Team Stats Update

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Now that the regular season has concluded, it is a good time to see how teams stack up in some less traditional statistical categories now that the league is in it’s second year of providing additional information.

Net Rating:

Using offensive and defensive rating is a good way of comparing teams because it equalized the number of possessions being accounted for with both expressed as points per 100 possessions.  The blue bar represents offensive rating while the red bar represents defensive rating.  The difference between the two is the net rating.

The team win-loss records are pretty clear for this season after looking at this chart.  The four non-playoff teams all have substantially worse offenses than the playoff teams.  The top four defenses had the best records in order while the three offenses were among those teams.  Minnesota and Los Angeles continue to lead in both categories while New York continues to rely on a stingy defense to pick up wins.  Dallas and Seattle were the last teams in the playoffs and their solid offenses were betrayed by below average defense.  Atlanta’s defense was very solid, but their lack of offense stifled their attempts to sneak into the playoffs.  San Antonio’s offense continues to lag behind the rest of the league as they finished at the bottom of the standings again.

Change vs. 2016:

With two seasons of statistics, it is now much more simple to compare the two years.  The blue column represents the change in offensive rating, the red column represents the change in defensive rating, and the green column represents the change in net rating from 2016 to 2017.  The changes in wins is included in the team labels.

Looking at the the teams with dramatic changes in fortune between the seasons, it is clear why the number of wins changed.  Connecticut, Dallas, and Washington improved both defensively and offensively.  Indiana’s collapse happened on both sides of the ball, while Chicago and Atlanta saw their decline occur on the defensive end.  Minnesota and Los Angeles were viewed as having dominant regular seasons last year, and this year has seen both of them improve in on court performance, even though there was a negligible difference in their records.

Rebound Percentage:

Separating the two rebound percentage statistics gives a better picture of team at each end of the court.  The x-axis represents the percentage of available offensive rebounds that the team grabs while the y-axis represents the percentage of available defensive rebounds that the team grabs.  Since offensive rebounding is often the result of strategy decisions, measuring defensive rebounding on its own is useful.  Strong defensive rebounding limits the opposition’s chances and gives the team more chances on offense.  Strong offensive rebounding can give the team more chances, but if it is the result of sending more players to crash the board, could result in giving up more transition points.

New York continues to be one of the league’s better rebounding teams, leading in both categories.  Connecticut follows them on the defensive end while Minnesota is the next team on the offensive end while also being among the leaders on the defensive end.  Indiana, Seattle, and Chicago struggle at both ends while the rest of the teams hover around the average defensively, but range widely at the offensive end.  The top five defense rebounding teams also have the top five defense and include the four teams in the league with the best records.  Offensive rebounding does not share the same relationship with offense.

Points Breakdowns:

The first chart is a breakdown of how each team scores its points while the second chart show how each team gives up its points.  The blue bars represent points from two pointers, the red bars show points from three pointers, and the green bars show the percentage of points coming from free throws.  While some of the extremes from other seasons are not replicated in this seasons figures, there are still some interesting observations.  Seattle scores a larger percentage of its points from behind the arc, but it also gives up the largest percentage from distance.  Dallas scores the lowest percentage of its points from two point field goals, but a larger percentage of the points scored on them come from inside the arc than for any other team.

Correlations:

Measuring correlation between various statistics can lead to rethinking of the relationships between them.  It is difficult to determine whether or not these relationships exist, but R-Squared, which ranges from 0 to 1 can determine how strong that relationship is within the data that is available with higher numbers being stronger.  The first chart shows correlations calculated with offensive rating and the second chart shows correlations calculated with defensive rating using team data.

Unsurprisingly, teams with strong assist to turnover ratios at higher offensive ratings.  Assists signify good offense while turnovers prevent more scoring opportunities, which is also shown by teams with higher turnover percentages having lower offensive ratings..  Teams with better defenses also tended to have better offenses, which is likely due to those teams having better personnel among other factors.  What is interesting is that defensive rebounding percentage had a higher correlation than offensive rebounding percentage, although neither had a particularly large R-Squared.  In theory, offensive rebounds should result in more chances to score, but this may represent different strategic choices.  Defensive rebounding could indicate talent disparities, but less energy expended on defense could also boost offense.  Pace and free throw rate have positive, but weak correlations.

It is no surprise that defensive rebounding has a strong correlation with better defense.  The ability to limit opponents to single chances on the offensive end is clearly useful.  Offensive rebounding also had a correlation in the same direction, which could indicate that crashing the boards could help prevent the opposition from getting into their offense quickly.  Block percentage and pace had correlations in direction that would be expected, with teams blocking more shots and teams that played in slower games having better defensive ratings, but neither correlation was particularly strong.

2017 Individual Stats Update

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With the second season of the WNBA’s commitment to providing additional statistics complete, let’s take a look at how players stack up in some of the non-traditional measures.  In order to be counted in these lists, players must have been on the court for 680 possessions, 20 per game that each team plays.  For players who played for multiple team, the last team name is listed, but stats compiled for all teams are included.

Usage:

Usage measures the percentage of her team’s possessions that the player terminates while she is on the court.  It provides two separate measures that help us understand a team’s offense, both showing which players are stars that a team relies on heavily and also identifying players who come off the bench or play fewer possessions, but take shots while they are on the court, which would not show up as much in traditional counting stats.  Players with a usage percentage of at least 23% are included on this list.

No single player may have been more critical to her team than Tina Charles this year and it showed on this list as she was the only player to exceed 30% usage and was the only Liberty player on the list.  She is followed by two teammate duos as the young stars of the Storm and the Mercury’s veterans were leaned on offensively.  Brittney Sykes pushed her way into the rookie of the year statistics as the season progressed and it was clear how she did so as she was given a larger and larger role over time.  Unlike some other instances, the number of players appearing on this list with fewer minutes played was not particularly large as Monique Currie was asked to play a variety of roles on two different teams this season while Ivory Latta was the only player on the list to play less than 20 minutes per game.  Skylar Diggins-Smith made the list as the only Wings player as she was on the court for more possessions than any other player in the league this season.

Effective Field Goal Percentage:

Effective field goal percentage helps nullify the advantage that post players and others who shoot closer to the basket have on players who shoot more of their shots from distance.  Three point shots are given more value to account for the additional point that they provide.  Players who have an effective field goal percentage above 55% are included on this list.

Adding points for three pointers did not change the leader in this category as Sylvia Fowles stayed on top without attempting a shot from behind the arc.  Crystal Langhorne was behind her while almost exclusively operating from two point range.  The first player with a reputation as a sniper checked in at third as Allie Quigley’s percentage clearly benefits from this adjustment.  Stefanie Dolson and Nneka Ogwumike get additional credit from this system as they mix a comfort of operating in the paint with an ability to stretch the floor.

Free Throw Rate:

Free throw rate measures the number of free throws attempted as a percentage of field goals attempted.  Players with at least 40% as many free throw attempts as field goal attempts are included on this list.  Players who rank high on this list tend to be either post players or slashers.

Five players attempt at least half as many free throws as field goals.  While Emma Cannon is a newcomer to the league, the other four are certainly no strangers to the list.  Alyssa Thomas just under 50% last year, but the other three were above and all in the top five on that list.  Shavonte Zellous, Karima Christmas-Kelly, and Brittney Griner all increased their percentages from 2016.  While those at the top of the list had higher rates than last season, the number of players at 42% and over decreased as only 18 players were at that mark after 24 players hit that rate a year ago.

Rebound Percentage:

Rebound percentage statistics help isolate multiple factors, not just controlling for minutes on the court.  Offensive and defensive rebounding are separate, which helps account for team philosophy and player roles.  The basis of measurement is available rebounds, which mitigates the effect of different field goal percentages.  Players who grabbed at least 20% of available rebounds on the defensive end made that list and players who grabbed at least 8% of available offensive rebounds made the other list.

Separate statistics are not needed to show that Jonquel Jones was dominant on the boards this season.  She grabbed nearly a third of her opponent’s misses, more than five percentage points above any other player while also leading in the offensive category as she nearly doubled her defensive rebounding rate from last year with a big increase in minutes.  The split better showcases Candace Parker’s rebounding as she was second on the defensive end, but not on the list for the offensive end where the Sparks were not among the league leaders, perhaps reflecting team philosophy.  Other Mystics acquisitions deservedly had more fanfare, but this statistic shows another key move as Krystal Thomas was in the top three in both categories, one of nine players players on both lists as Tianna Hawkins also helped the Mystics rebound well.  Sylvia Fowles and Rebekkah Brunson are both in the top ten of total rebounds all time, so it was no surprise to see them as the other pair of teammates to appear on both lists.

All Star Break Team Stats Update

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Net Rating:

Let’s take a look at how teams stack up statistically at the All Star Break.  Teams are sorted in order of offensive rating with the blue bar representing points per 100 possessions scored and the red bar representing points given up per 100 possessions.  It is no surprise that Minnesota dominated in both categories with Los Angeles also scoring well.  At the other end of the spectrum, San Antonio struggles offensively compared to every other team.  New York continues to enjoy a strong defensive record while Indiana and Dallas bring up the rear.

Comparison to 2016:

With coaching and personnel changes in the offseason, let’s take a look at the difference in each category compared to the end of last season.  The blue bar represents the change in offensive rating while the red bar represents the change in defensive rating with a positive number meaning fewer points given up per possession compared to last season.  The green bar combines the two and measures change in net rating.

Minnesota led the league in both categories last season and their figures so far this season are even better than those marks.  Los Angeles has increased their offense, but their defense has regressed, leading to an overall decline in net rating.  The improvement of Connecticut and Washington in the standings can be seen clearly with their increases in both categories this year with Dallas also seeing positives in both numbers.  Indiana on the other hand, has struggled in both offense and defense with such important changes.  San Antonio may have the worst offense in the league at this point, but it is actually an improvement from last season’s mark, which was even further away from the second worst offense.  Chicago had the second best offense a year ago, but now have the second worst as an improvement on defense was nowhere near enough to offset that on a net basis. [Read more…]

Candace Parker Walks the Red Carpet at the Inaugural NBA Awards Show (Video)

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June 27, 2017

2016 WNBA Champion Candace Parker was in attendance at the Inaugural NBA Awards last night in New York City. Parker presented alongside Vince Carter during the show. Parker has been a fixture at awards shows during her decorated career and does so with grace while looking amazing. She continues to represent the WNBA with class. Look for her again during the 2017 ESPY awards where she is nominated for Best WNBA Player. Check out the video below to see what Candace was most looking forward to about the awards show.

The Third Round Conundrum… Removing the WNBA Draft Third Round

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Roster space is at a premium for WNBA teams, making it a tough road for rookies to make the roster.  While first round picks can generally expect to make the team and get a chance in the regular season, the record is much spottier for second round picks with third round picks having an even longer shot to make it to the season.  In the seven previous drafts of the twelve team era, only four players have made it to a second season on their initial contract without being waived, which is only one more than the number of draft picks in that time that have been voided due to teams picking ineligible players.  Only thirteen of the players ended up playing a game in the year they were drafted on their initial contracts.  Given that record, are there changes that can be made for the future?

Removing the third round:

If third round picks rarely make it through training camp, is there an argument for reducing the size of the draft in the next CBA negotiations?  If players have very little chance at surviving training camp, then perhaps they should be allowed to choose which training camp to attend like undrafted players instead of being restricted to one team.  That would allow the player to evaluate different team situations and pick a spot where she would best be in a position to earn a spot on the final roster.  There are arguments for keeping the draft at least at the current length.  A team is more likely to be invested in a player if they used a draft pick on her than if she was undrafted, even though the pick is a sunk cost.  Having more draft choices encourages teams to scout further, possibly helping them identify less heralded players who can make an impact, especially from lesser known schools.  While the picks themselves may not have real value, they still create additional assets that can be used as trade currency to help teams make other moves.

Changing draft rights rules:

The issue of pick value is not due to the lack of quality of players available.  The limited roster spots force teams to make tough decisions when it comes to the final players who make the team.  Many current WNBA players have been waived in their career only to return and prove themselves to belong in the league.  Are there changes that could be made that could give the picks more value and reward teams for making good selections?  One of the other uses of late round picks is for players who are unable to sign a contract for their rookie season, often a result of an injury.  In the past eight drafts, eleven third round picks from college did not sign a contract in their draft year.  Teams can benefit from taking injured or otherwise unavailable players because those players usually fall in draft position compared to their projected talent level due to their immediate unavailability.  This approach can be risky because of how draft rights are set up as college players can choose to re-enter the draft in the next year if they do not sign any kind of professional contract, although this provision has not been tested yet. [Read more…]

The Annual WNBA Roster Crunch

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With the start of another WNBA season comes the annual race for players to claim a very limited number of roster spots.  After accounting for returning veterans, rookies have to immediately prove that they can contribute to their teams.  Fortunately, not all veterans arrive in training camp when it starts due to overseas play so there are additional roster spots up to the limit of fifteen that can be filled by rookies until other players join.  Coming off their final college seasons and often still with school commitments, training camp is a quick introduction to the nonstop seasons that those who make rosters can expect to continue to experience.

Now that opening day rosters are set, let’s take a look at a breakdown of their composition.  The late running overseas season has resulted in three additional players being carried to opening day, while Minnesota is only carrying eleven players.  That leaves 146 players, including 107 who were on a roster in some capacity to end last season and another 10 with previous WNBA experience.  That leaves 29 rookies.  Two of the those players were draft picks from previous seasons who have signed for the first time while six were from previous drafts, including some with previous training camp experience.  This draft class provides twenty-one players.  Injuries leave one first round pick unsigned while the other eleven players have made it to opening day.  In the second round, there was one unsigned pick and one international pick, leaving four players who made it through training camp and one who was waived and then claimed by another team, meaning that five of the drafted players were let go by the end of training camp. [Read more…]

WNBA Rookies Shine in Preseason Debut

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April 30, 2016

In the first preseason game of the 2017 WNBA season the San Antonio Stars hosted the Dallas Wings Saturday afternoon. On display were five top ten draft picks, including the #1 pick Kelsey Plum who many were anxious to see in her WNBA debut. Plum did not disappoint as she scored her first basket less than a minute into the game. Plum went on to score 19 points and dished out 5 assists. She was able to score in many different ways; getting to the basket, coming off screens and knocking down three point shots. She even got to the free throw line more times than anyone on the Stars where she went seven for seven from the stripe. If there were any doubts as to whether Plum would shine in this league that was certainly put to rest yesterday. Plum wasn’t the only rookie to impress on the Stars. No. 5 pick Nia Coffee was very efficient in almost 20 minutes of play. Coffee was relentless on the boards where she pulled down five rebounds and went 6-10 from the floor to finish second in scoring with 17 points. Rookie Briana Day out of Syracuse scored 10 points on 4-7 shooting.

Dallas Wings rookies were also very impressive in their debuts. Allisha Gray led the way for the Wings scoring a team high 15 points. Gray was aggressive with the ball as she attacked the basket and got to the line eight times. Although Gray was not as efficient from the floor, her tenacity fits right in with Dallas style of play. South Carolina teammate Kaela Davis held her own in Saturday’s contest as well. Davis finished with 13 points 6 rebounds and 3 assists her her WNBA debut. She was able to get to the basket and use her size and strength to finish shots. No. 3 pick Evelyn Akhator was a little more quiet in her debut as she finished with four points and four rebounds in 15 minutes of play. In the end the San Antonio Stars hung on the win 87-81 to give Vicki Johnson her first win as a WNBA head coach.

All in all these rookies had a fine showing in Saturday’s game. For it to be their first time in a WNBA uniform, they showed poise and skill that will definitely be beneficial to both teams who were at the bottom on the league standings for the 2016 season. The Stars and the Wings will rely heavily on their young talent to lead the way this season. As they continue to adjust to the size and speed of the WNBA, these young players will continue to develop and be huge contributors to the success of their respective clubs.

2017 WNBA Full Preseason Schedule!

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April 26, 2017

WNBA training camps are underway throughout the league. Although many players are still competing in European leagues, preseason games are scheduled to begin this weekend. We will finally get the chance to see #1 draft pick Kelsey Plum in action as the San Antonio Stars take on the Dallas Wings on Saturday at 2:30 PM ET. Also suiting up for the first time in a WNBA uniform with be Dallas Wing’s number 3 and 4 overall picks Evelyn Akhator and Allisha Gray. Check out the full preseason schedule below. 

Change the Venue Back! WNBA Draft 2017…

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April 14, 2017

When the WNBA announced that the 2017 draft would be held in New York City at Samsung 837, the brand’s experiential flagship and cultural hub there was much excitement around a welcomed change to the format and venue of past drafts. The venue was described as a “digital playground [that] boasts three levels of experience zones including a VR Theater and three-story multimedia screen.” Sounds pretty cool right? Yea, I thought so too. The WNBA draft had been held in Connecticut at the Mohegan Sun for the past three years. Connecticut is home to the league’s broadcast partner ESPN who provided coverage and home to a very large women’s basketball fan base who faithfully follow the UCONN Huskies. Connecticut is also home to the WNBA’s Connecticut Sun. Many didn’t know what to expect with the change in venue but the league assured us all that “Samsung 837 will provide a setting unlike any the WNBA Draft has featured before.” The league was right, this was a setting unlike any before, unfortunately, in this case, that wasn’t necessarily a good thing.

First of all, the event was not open to the public which wasn’t the greatest idea since New York City is the home of the Liberty who have one of the larger fanbases in the WNBA. But if the draft was not open to the public who were all those random people floating around in the background hardly paying attention to what was going on in front of them? From my television screen, the players seemed to be crammed into a small area where they shared high school style lunchroom tables. Come on now, can a player soon to be drafted into the greatest women’s league in the world get her own table with her family? Not only that, was there any kind of rehearsal for the players? When Kelsey Plum was drafted #1 to the San Antonio Stars she looked confused as to what to do next? Should she go somewhere like on a stage where she could take a picture with her new jersey and president of the WNBA Lisa Borders? Or should she just stand there and wait for an interview with a bunch of noisy people in the background? That didn’t look good AT ALL.

Secondly, I am a huge fan of Dawn Staley and was very excited to see her win her first National Championship but why did she announce the first pick in the draft? I mean, I get it, we want to honor her success but it just didn’t work for me. Did it work for you? Furthermore, why did Sheryl Swoopes announce the second pick? Where was the continuity? So Staley announced the first pick, she had just won the national championship, Swoops announced the second pick but why? Swoops didn’t just win a championship but maybe it was because she headlines the 2017 Women’s Basketball Hall of Fame inductees? Still don’t get it. So that was it? Two people other than the WNBA president announced the first two picks of the draft and that was it? You might as well had each and every pick announced by some former player who had recently been celebrated. I mean you could hardly see President Borders who was huddled up in some random DJ booth as she announced the picks. Where was Lisa Borders? We love Lisa! We want to see you!

When we got to the #7 pick in the draft and the Atlanta Dream selected Brittney Sykes from Syracuse, she was nowhere to be found. You know why? Because the league decided it was a good idea to only invite ten prospects to attend the draft. Your name was called #7 on the biggest day of your basketball career and you couldn’t even be there to celebrate! That’s wrong. It’s sad that these young ladies missed out on a real draft experience where they would hear their names called, walk on stage and receive their new team jersey, take a picture with the president of the league and then head over to be interviewed about their experience. They deserved that. Instead, they just stood up at their shared lunch table and were rushed through a quick interview. What did we learn about Samsung 837? Unless I missed something, I didn’t see much more than a few people seated in some sort of simulated virtual experience. Was there something else?

Breanna Stewart was selected #1 in the 2016 WNBA Draft.

I welcome the change in venue for the WNBA draft, why not have it in the mecca of basketball NYC, but give these girls a better experience, give the world who’s watching something to look forward to. Please don’t go back to the Mohegan but if we have to sit through what we did last night, I’d gladly take the casino over virtual reality. Either way, congratulations to all the young ladies who were drafted last night. Welcome to the greatest women’s basketball league in the world. Despite the shortcomings of a well-intentioned draft experience you are about to embark of some of the greatest times of your lives. Cherish these moments and appreciate the process. Hoping for an even better 21st WNBA season! Let us know what you thought of the 2017 Draft? Did you enjoy the new venue? What did you like or didn’t like about it all? We would love to hear your thoughts.

WNBA Announce 2017 Draft Attendees!

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April 6, 2017

Earlier today the WNBA announced the 2017 WNBA Draft Presented By State Farm attendees. The draft will be held in New York City on April 13th at Samsung 837. Beginning at 7pm, ESPN2 will provide live coverage and analysis with the last two rounds moving over to ESPNU. Coverage will also stream live on WatchESPN and the ESPN app. Ten of the top draft prospects were invited to this year’s draft in NYC which was revealed via twitter. In a change from recent WNBA drafts, where at least enough players to cover the first round were invited, the league seemed to only invite those who are shoo-in’s to be drafted in the first round. Even still, there are several notable players left off of the invite list. It will be odd to see at least two players unable to hear their names called in the green room and head on stage to take pictures with WNBA president Lisa Borders with their new team’s jersey. Either way, the change in venue is a refreshing change to good ole’ Mohegan Sun Arena.

The list of invited players and their families are filled with recent NCAA champions, All-Americans, a conference player of the year, and the all-time leading scorer in NCAA Division I women’s history. South Carolina will have three players at this year’s WNBA draft.  Four time All-SEC center and 2017 national champion Alaina Coates will be in attendance along with teammates Kaela Davis and Allisha Gray representing the Gamecocks. Northwestern standout Nia Coffey, who is the first player in program history to score 1,000 points and pull down 1,000 rebounds, will be on hand. The lone player from the state of Texas, which is home to two WNBA franchises, Alexis Jones from Baylor was invited. The Maryland Terrapins will have two players in NYC, Brionna Jones and Shatori Walker-Kimbrough. Jones was named the 2017 Big Ten Player of the Year and First-Team All-American while Walker-Kimbrough is the Big Ten all-time career leader in 3FG%. Stanford’s forward Erica McCall has been invited to the draft. McCall is the half-sister of WNBA all-star Dewanna Bonner. Oregon State’s four-time all PAC12 player, Sydney Wiese will be at Samsung 837. And finally, the player who most certainly will be the #1 draft pick to the San Antonio Stars, Washington’s Kelsey Plum will be the first player on stage in New York City. Plum is the all-time leading scorer in NCAA Division I women’s history. And for the first time for as long as I can remember the University of Connecticut will not have any players in the green room at the WNBA draft. For once, head coach Geno Auriemma gets a chance to take a break from the cameras.