As the season has gone past the midway point, let’s take a look at home teams are stacking up in various statistical categories.

Net Rating:

The blue bar represents points scored per 100 possessions and the red bar represents points given up per 100 possessions.  The difference is the team’s net rating.  While three teams enter the break tied in the loss column at the top of the standings, there is a clear winner in offense so far this season.  The Washington Mystics are scoring nearly 9 points more per 100 possessions than any other team.  Connecticut is the next best offensive team and also tied with them in the standings while having the second best defense.  Las Vegas, on the other hand, joins these teams in the standings with a different focus, having the toughest defense by more than 3.5 points per 100 possessions.

Overall, the teams currently in playoff places are the ones with positive net ratings.  Indiana may be tied for last place in the loss column, but they have the least negative net rating among teams currently on the outside looking in as their third best offense is offset by their worst defense.  The other teams in their predicament struggle in both categories with the next three worst defenses and the three worst offenses.

Change from 2018:

The blue bar represents the change in offensive rating between the whole season last year and this season to date with a positive number meaning an improvement this season.  The red bar represents the change in defensive rating between the whole season last year and this season to date with a negative number meaning an improvement this season. The green bar represents the change in net rating between the whole season last year and this season to date with a positive number meaning an improvement this season.

Much has been made about the decrease in scoring this season and this chart clearly shows the difference as Indiana made a solid improvement to their offense and Washington is seeing an incremental improvement, but the rest of the league has seen drops of more than 2.5 points per 100 possessions.  Attlanta is the only team with a worse defense, compounding their issues in a season where their offensive output has declined by more than 11 points per 100 possessions, giving them the worst decrease in net rating among all teams.  Star absences may also help to explain some of the other teams that had precipitous drops in offensive output.  Chicago still has a below average defense, but their improvement in that category from the worst in the league last season helps explain their rise in the standings.  Like the Sky, Las Vegas did not have an increase in offense, but their defensive improvement by more than 15 points per 100 possessions to the best in the league gave them the best net rating improvement.  Indiana improved in both categories like Washington, but they are still outside the playoff picture and New York’s overall improvement still leaves them short of their postseason aspirations for now.

Rebounding:

The y-axis represents the percentage of opponent misses that a team grabs and the x-axis represents percentage of a team’s own misses that it grabs.  Teams further to the right are proficient at offensive rebounding and teams higher up are proficient at defensive rebounding.  Using rebounding percentage as a measure of rebounding is more useful because it is independent of the number of missed shots.  Separating offensive and defensive rebounding helps as well because while defensive rebounding is important for all teams, offensive rebounding is often based on strategic choices by a team.

Connecticut takes care of the boards on both ends of the floor, grabbing the highest percentage of their own misses, a category they were league leaders in last year, and having the second best defensive rebounding percentage.  Las Vegas makes it easier on their defense by corralling their opponents’ misses better than any other team.  Dallas may grab the second highest percentage of offensive rebounds, but all the extra opportunities have not helped their offensive efficiency.  Phoenix rebounds the lowest percentage of their own misses by more than three percentage points, two percentage points lower than their league low from last year.  Atlanta is struggling with defensive rebounding despite being above average on the other end of the floor.

Home vs. Road:

Homecourt advantage has been a known effect in basketball for a long time so it should come as no surprise that every team has a better net rating at home than on the road so far this season.  The blue bars represent the difference in points per 100 possessions scored at home.  The red bars represent the difference in points per 100 possessions give up at home with a negative number meaning a better defense at home.  The green bar is the difference in net rating at home and teams are listed in order of how much more efficient they are overall at home.  Atlanta is the only team with worse offense at home, but only by a slim margin while Phoenix is the only team to play worse defense at home.  The disparity is so strong that only Washington and Las Vegas have positive net ratings on the road.  Given the teams different performances depending on venue, there could be insights to be gained in the playoff chase by how many games teams have left at home.

Los Angeles could be poised for a strong rest of the season, having battled through a schedule with more road games than anyone else.  With twice as many home games left as road games, they should be in good shape even though their homecourt advantage is only about average and they will continue to not have their full roster for a number of games.  Chicago has the most road games left of any team and while their offense has been about the same everywhere, their defense is worse on the road by a wider margin than any team.  Unlike the other two top teams so far, Connecticut plays poorly on the road, sitting in the middle of the pack in net rating away from home.  At home, they have the second best offensive and defensive ratings, only behind Washington on offense and Las Vegas on defense, thus giving them the biggest overall homecourt advantage.  While they look to be outside of the playoffs, Dallas will still be on the hunt for their first road win, but their struggles are clear as they have a positive net rating at home, which explains their 5-5 record there, but the play worse on the road by the second biggest margin.

Now that the regular season is complete, let’s take a look at how teams fared in a variety of statistical categories and how those compare to their performances last year.

Net Rating:

This chart shows offensive rating in blue and defensive rating in red for each team and is sorted by points per 100 offensive possessions.  The difference between the two is the net rating as all four non-playoff teams had negative net ratings and all eight playoff teams had positive net ratings.  Defense was a common thread among the worst teams in the league as the five with losing records had the five worst in the league.  The two teams that were worst on offense ended up struggling the most as their porous defenses also did not help them pick up wins.  The two teams that ended up with the best records had different approaches.  Seattle’s dominance was built at both ends of the court, ranking second at both types of efficiency.  Atlanta had the league’s best defense, getting just enough on offense to win a number of close games.

Change from 2017:

Teams are ranked by their offensive improvement as the blue bar represents the change in offensive rating and the red bar represents the change in the defensive rating.  Team win totals changes are listed next to the team name.  A negative change in defensive rating is good because it means fewer points were given up per 100 possessions.  Even though Bill Laimbeer has a reputation as a defensive coach, it was the offensive change that was in the right direction for the Aces as they had a greater improvement in that category than any team.  Seattle’s improvement was on both ends of the court, especially defensively and Atlanta’s similar improvements showed why both increased their win totals the most.  Washington and Dallas also improved in both categories even though Dallas did not improve their record.  The three teams that had the best net ratings a season ago all saw them drop drastically, contributing to the three worst drops in wins.  The Liberty had the third best defense a year ago, but ended up with the third worst this season and their offensive efficiency also decreased.  Minnesota was the leader in both categories last year and saw large drops while Los Angeles still maintained the second best defense even with a decrease while watching their offense suffer as well.

Rebounding:

Defensive rebounding is shown on the y-axis while offensive rebounding is shown on the x-axis and both are expressed in percentages of opportunities available.  Separating the two is especially important in evaluating defensive rebounding as different teams show different levels of interest in offensive rebounds compared to getting back on defense.  Minnesota featured two of the top rebounders of all time and as a result were the best in the league at limiting their opponents’ opportunities.  Chicago was the only team to fail to even grab 70% of their opponents’ misses, which may have contributed to their league-worst defensive efficiency.  Connecticut and Dallas were among the league leaders in both categories, but were especially dangerous on the offensive end.  The Sparks were average on the defensive end, but were the only team to grab less than 22% of their own misses, which may reflect a strategic decision.  Phoenix was second worst in both categories.

Change from 2017:

The x-axis represents change in offensive rebound percentage and the y-axis represents change in defensive rebound percentage.  Both are measured in absolute terms and not as a percentage change.  Three teams improved in both categories with Seattle’s new look frontcourt clearly helping them on the glass with the biggest gains in both categories.  Four teams decreased in both categories, but none as severely as the Liberty as their general downfall was shown quite clearly as they were the league leader in both categories last season, but fell back into the pack this year.  The Sun had a big jump to become the league’s best offensive rebounding team while Minnesota shored up their defensive rebounding even though they had a similar decrease on the offensive end.

There were few other interesting team stats changes this year in other categories.  Minnesota was the only team to not improve their assist to turnover ratio this season.  The biggest improvement was shown by Las Vegas, which saw the amount of possessions ending in a turnover drop by five and a half percentage points, which had to be a factor in their improved offensive efficiency.  Free throw rates dropped for most teams, leading to a decreased reliance on the stripe as a source for points while most teams got a higher percentage of their points from the behind the arc with the Aces as a notable exception due to finally having a post presence.  New frontcourt players also changed the rates at which teams block shots as Seattle and Dallas had the biggest jumps.

Points by Type and Opponent Stats:

The chart on the left shows how teams got their points while the chart on the right shows how they gave them up on the defensive end.   The bottom of each bar is two pointers, the middle is three pointers, and the top is free throws.  Las Vegas was the team that was least reliant on generating offense behind the arc, 7 percentage points below the next closest team and the only team to not score at least 20% of their points from distance.  Unsurprisingly they were first in percentage on points from inside the arc and second in percentage on points from the line.  Phoenix was the only team to score less than half their points from inside the arc while Seattle was the only team to get more than 30% of their points from long range.  There was much less variation on the defensive end, but the Liberty gave up the highest percentage of opposition points on three pointers and free throws.

Looking at the stats put up by opponents can also be useful in other categories.  The Sparks forced a greater percentage of turnovers than any other team, helping their opponents have a worse collective assist to turnover ratio than any individual team.  The Sky were in the middle of the pack when it came to forcing turnovers so the high assist to turnover ratio of their opponents should be attributed to a large number of assisted field goals.  Los Angeles was the best team at avoiding having their shots blocked while Chicago had the worst percentage.  The Liberty gave their opponents the most free throws compared to field goal attempts while the Lynx and Storm gave up the lowest free throw rates.

Home vs. Road:

The blue bars represent the difference in offensive rating on their home court and on opposing courts and the red bar represents the difference in defensive rating on their home court and on opposing courts.  A negative number for defensive rating means that the team has a more efficient defense at home and teams were sorted in order of the biggest difference in offensive rating.  Each team the difference between home wins and road wins next to their name.  Four teams were more than three wins better on their home courts and they were better on defense on their home courts.  Dallas and Connecticut were five wins better at home as they had the two biggest offensive advantages while Washington was the only other team to be more efficient on both ends of the court.  Los Angeles and Atlanta, on the other hand, had the two biggest defensive improvements at home, but both had less efficient offenses.  Indiana and Phoenix were the only teams to win more games on the road than at home and it appears that worse defense should be blamed as both teams were better offensively at home.  All teams were better on at least one end of the court at home.

The y-axis shows the difference in defensive rebound percentage at home compared to the road while the x-axis shows the difference in offensive rebound percentage at home compared to the road.  Scale is based on absolute percentage points and not the ratio between the two.  Five teams grab a higher percentage of misses at both ends of the court at home while Indiana is significantly worse at home on both ends and Minnesota less so.  The Sun are the best team overall at offensive rebounding, but that advantage seems to come primarily on the road where their percentage is more than five and a half points higher than their closest competition.  The Sky and Mercury are the two worst defensive rebounding teams in the league, but that should be blamed more on their inability to secure rebounds on the road than at home.

Seattle and Los Angeles turned the ball over more at home than on the road, leaving them as the only two teams with a worse assist to turnover ratio at home while Chicago managed to avoid a similar fate despite difficulties hanging on to the basketball at home.  There was no overall trend for block percentage, but the league’s best shotblocking team Atlanta made sure to give their home fans a little extra to cheer about defensively while Connecticut was more likely to be silencing the opposing fans.  Free throw attempts as a ratio of field goal attempts was a little higher at home, but not dramatically so.

With more and more types of statistics available, let’s take a look at the league leaders in a variety of non-traditional measures.  Players who were on the court for 700 possessions are included with the last team listed for players who appeared for multiple teams this year.

Usage:

24 players were responsible for terminating at least 23% of their team’s possessions while they were on the court.  While there are plenty of recognizable players on the list, there are also a number of new faces as four rookies and three players who were out last season are in this group.  The impact of the return of Liz Cambage to the Wings was obvious as she had a higher usage than anyone else while A’ja Wilson was certainly called on to carry the load for Las Vegas early.  Tina Charles continues to be the main force for the Liberty as the higher number of possessions that she played meant that she terminated more possessions than any other player.  Using usage instead of counting statistics is a good way of better understanding the impact of bench players and starters who may play fewer minutes.  Amanda Zahui B played fewer possessions than the other players on this list, but when she was in, she was often the endpoint of the possession.  A couple midseason moves also had clear impacts as Cappie Pondexter changed the dynamics around the Indiana Fever, which had been giving plenty of opportunities to Kelsey Mitchell in their rebuilding process.  The trade of Alex Bentley also led to a high usage player switching teams, which could turn out to be critical after Atlanta lost Angel McCoughtry.

Effective Field Goal Percentage:

Using the effective field goal percentage instead of the traditional field goal percentage helps take into account the value of the three pointer, allowing those who rely on shooting from the outside to be included among post players who take higher percentage opportunities.  20 players were over 55% once the added point from three pointers is taken into account.  This method favors post players who can also shoot from outside so it was Jonquel Jones who led this category by a wide margin.  Even in this measure, Sylvia Fowles finished second, showing the reliability of her offensive contributions even though she does not venture beyond the arc.  While plenty of traditional posts are on this list, some of the league’s renowned sharpshooters got a solid boost with this method.

Free Throw Rate:

Free throw rate measures the ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts.  15 players attempted at least 40% as many free throws as field goals.  Alaina Coates did not play much in her rookie season, but a significant portion of her offensive attempts came at the stripe as she attempted less than twice as many field goals as free throws, the only one on the list to hit that level.  Liz Cambage leads the higher usage players on this list and that helped Dallas have the highest rate as a team.  The group is a mixture of post players, who often find themselves getting fouled as they try to generate offense, and slashers whose style lead to trips to line on their drives.

Rebound Percentage:

Using percentage instead of simply relying on rebounding totals helps us identify some of the players who play fewer minutes who are still proficient at grabbing boards.  Separating offensive and defensive rebounding is also important because different teams have different strategic approaches to rebounding, especially on the offensive end.  19 players grabbed at least 8% of the available offensive rebounds while they were on the court and 19 players grabbed at least 20% of the defensive rebounds available when they were on the court.

It does not matter which end of the court that we are talking about when it comes to Sylvia Fowles crashing the boards.  She was the league leader in both categories and the amount of time she spent on the court compared to her closest competitors make those margins even more impressive.  Courtney Paris did not play as many minutes, but when she did, she rebounded prolifically as her addition to Seattle frontcourt was part of the reason that they had league high improvement in both categories this year.  9 players appeared on both lists.  Brittany Boyd stands out as the lone guard on these lists as the Liberty’s decrease in rebounding prowess this year cannot be blamed on her.

With the regular season complete, let’s take a look at the players who moved up the career charts this year.  Players who were active this season are highlighted.

Points:

This was a landmark season for a number of players on the scoring charts as Diana Taurasi pushed past the 8,000 point barrier while Sue Bird and Candice Dupree reached 6,000 points, and Angel McCoughtry, Tina Charles, and Candace Parker all crossed the 5,000 point mark.  There will still be plenty of milestones for next season as Taurasi is poised to also hit the 9,000 mark and Cappie Pondexter will be trying to make one more push before the end of her career.  Maya Moore should reach 5,000 points shortly with Sylvia Fowles not far behind.  The newest member of this list is Monique Currie as 13 of the players were active this season.

Rebounds:

The story of the season in this category was Rebekkah Brunson’s chase for the career mark, which she surpassed late in the season.  Tamika Catchings will have her career total chased again next season when Sylvia Fowles can pass it easily with a comparable season to this year after hitting the 3,000 mark.  Tina Charles figures to be the next member of the 3,000 rebound club while it would take an impressive effort from Candice Dupree to be able to do it next year.  DeWanna Bonner is the newest member of this list, while Lindsay Whalen was unable to move into the top 25 before retiring, making it easier for those just below this group to catch her in the future.  For now, this remains a tough group to crack with only 9 active players.

Assists:

While four of the top six all time played this season, the attention went to Courtney Vandersloot, who assisted at an even more impressive clip this year than last year, propelling her into the top ten and probably within two seasons of the top five.  Tanisha Wright returned from a year’s absence to move up one spot in the list.  Four players reached 1,000 assists as Kristi Toliver and Renee Montgomery surpassed Alana Beard while doing so as Briann January entered this list for the first time alongside Danielle Robinson, who is still just short of quadrupile digits.  Having 12 active players on this list has led to plenty of movement over the course of the year.  DeLisha Milton-Jones was bumped out of this group, leaving Tamika Catchings as the only player present on all five lists, although Diana Taurasi (Rebounds) and Candace Parker (Steals) should be in position to join that elite club.

Blocks:

Margo Dydek’s record is still well out of reach, but Brittney Griner continues to beat her pace towards the top as she tied Sylvia Fowles this season in their mutual chase up the ranks.  Candace Parker recorded her 500th block this year and Tina Charles reached 300.  Elizabeth Williams joined the list for the first time, making it 11 active players.

Steals:

Nobody looks set to approach Tamika Catchings anytime soon, but the return of Angel McCoughtry did give us a new member of the top ten.  Lindsay Whalen will finish at an even 500 for her career.  Maya Moore is the newest player on this list, among 10 active players present as she and Cappie Pondexter were the latest to hit the 400 steal mark.  A similar season next year could see Moore jump past a number of players well into the top 15.

There are many ways of attempting to calculate the impact of a player being on or off the court.  One method is to calculate team offensive and defensive ratings when the player is on and off the court.  This allows players across teams to be compared independent of how good the team is.  If a player’s team has poor ratings, but performs even worse without her on the floor, these calculations can show her positive impact.  Similarly, players on good teams will generally have solid ratings, but the team might not be playing much better with her on the floor.  Like all methods, this is not a perfect way of measuring a player’s impact as it is affected by other factors, like the other players in the lineup and the different nature of garbage time.

All players who only appeared for 1 team this season and played at least 680 possessions, which is 20 per game played by the team, were included in the calculations.  The offensive chart includes all players whose on-court offensive rating was at least 5 points per 100 possessions better than the team’s offensive rating without the player on the court.  The defensive chart includes all players whose on-court defensive rating was at least 6 points per 100 possessions better than the team’s defensive rating without the player on the court.  Each chart includes the difference in the rating when the player is on and off the court and the approximate percentage of the team’s total possessions when the player was on the court.

All stats are from wnba.com and calculations involved are subject to rounding and estimation.

Offensive:

[Read more…]

September 26, 2016

With the regular season complete, let’s take a look at some of the less traditional statistical categories to see how players stack up in a variety of metrics.

All stats are from wnba.com and include all players who have played for one team all season and been on the court for at least 680 possessions.  Total column indicates number of possessions on the court.

Usage:

Usage shows what percentage of possessions a player is responsible for ending on the offensive end while she is on the court via shots and turnovers.  It is one of the more useful ways of understanding various lineups and rotations of teams because it can be a point of comparison of the usage of key bench players compared to starters since it only counts time on the floor.  All players who used at least 22% of their team’s possessions while on the court are included. [Read more…]

September 25, 2016

With the 2016 regular season complete, it is time to take a look at how players have moved up the career totals list and which records may be in danger in 2017.

Looking at the 5 major counting statistics, it is the perfect time to reflect on the all-around impacts of Tamika Catchings, DeLisha Milton-Jones, and Swin Cash as they retire.   The 3 of them join Lisa Leslie and Taj McWilliams Franklin as the only players to rank in the top 30 of all 5 categories.  Catchings does so in impressive fashion, finishing no lower than 12th in any category, with her performance in blocks standing out even more when comparing her height to some of the other players on the list.  Her next lowest placement was 6th as she finishes 1st in both rebounds and steals with a 2nd place finish in points.  Milton-Jones was able to hold on to all of her rankings after not appearing in any games in the season before she announced her retirement.  Cash used her last season to get the steals that she needed to make the list on her last category.

Players highlighted were active in the WNBA in 2016

Points:

We did not have a new all time scoring leader this season, but look for that to change next year.  Tamika Catchings finishes her career in 2nd place, but Diana Taurasi seems poised to surpass her and also climb above Tina Thompson to take over the lead.  Cappie Pondexter is likely to reach 4th while Sue Bird should be able to crack the top 10.  Another milestone to look forward to is 5,000 points for Angel McCoughtry as the top 30 players have now all surpassed 4,000 career points. [Read more…]