Net Rating:

Let’s take a look at how teams stack up statistically at the All Star Break.  Teams are sorted in order of offensive rating with the blue bar representing points per 100 possessions scored and the red bar representing points given up per 100 possessions.  It is no surprise that Minnesota dominated in both categories with Los Angeles also scoring well.  At the other end of the spectrum, San Antonio struggles offensively compared to every other team.  New York continues to enjoy a strong defensive record while Indiana and Dallas bring up the rear.

Comparison to 2016:

With coaching and personnel changes in the offseason, let’s take a look at the difference in each category compared to the end of last season.  The blue bar represents the change in offensive rating while the red bar represents the change in defensive rating with a positive number meaning fewer points given up per possession compared to last season.  The green bar combines the two and measures change in net rating.

Minnesota led the league in both categories last season and their figures so far this season are even better than those marks.  Los Angeles has increased their offense, but their defense has regressed, leading to an overall decline in net rating.  The improvement of Connecticut and Washington in the standings can be seen clearly with their increases in both categories this year with Dallas also seeing positives in both numbers.  Indiana on the other hand, has struggled in both offense and defense with such important changes.  San Antonio may have the worst offense in the league at this point, but it is actually an improvement from last season’s mark, which was even further away from the second worst offense.  Chicago had the second best offense a year ago, but now have the second worst as an improvement on defense was nowhere near enough to offset that on a net basis. [Read more…]

Roster space is at a premium for WNBA teams, making it a tough road for rookies to make the roster.  While first round picks can generally expect to make the team and get a chance in the regular season, the record is much spottier for second round picks with third round picks having an even longer shot to make it to the season.  In the seven previous drafts of the twelve team era, only four players have made it to a second season on their initial contract without being waived, which is only one more than the number of draft picks in that time that have been voided due to teams picking ineligible players.  Only thirteen of the players ended up playing a game in the year they were drafted on their initial contracts.  Given that record, are there changes that can be made for the future?

Removing the third round:

If third round picks rarely make it through training camp, is there an argument for reducing the size of the draft in the next CBA negotiations?  If players have very little chance at surviving training camp, then perhaps they should be allowed to choose which training camp to attend like undrafted players instead of being restricted to one team.  That would allow the player to evaluate different team situations and pick a spot where she would best be in a position to earn a spot on the final roster.  There are arguments for keeping the draft at least at the current length.  A team is more likely to be invested in a player if they used a draft pick on her than if she was undrafted, even though the pick is a sunk cost.  Having more draft choices encourages teams to scout further, possibly helping them identify less heralded players who can make an impact, especially from lesser known schools.  While the picks themselves may not have real value, they still create additional assets that can be used as trade currency to help teams make other moves.

Changing draft rights rules:

The issue of pick value is not due to the lack of quality of players available.  The limited roster spots force teams to make tough decisions when it comes to the final players who make the team.  Many current WNBA players have been waived in their career only to return and prove themselves to belong in the league.  Are there changes that could be made that could give the picks more value and reward teams for making good selections?  One of the other uses of late round picks is for players who are unable to sign a contract for their rookie season, often a result of an injury.  In the past eight drafts, eleven third round picks from college did not sign a contract in their draft year.  Teams can benefit from taking injured or otherwise unavailable players because those players usually fall in draft position compared to their projected talent level due to their immediate unavailability.  This approach can be risky because of how draft rights are set up as college players can choose to re-enter the draft in the next year if they do not sign any kind of professional contract, although this provision has not been tested yet. [Read more…]

With the start of another WNBA season comes the annual race for players to claim a very limited number of roster spots.  After accounting for returning veterans, rookies have to immediately prove that they can contribute to their teams.  Fortunately, not all veterans arrive in training camp when it starts due to overseas play so there are additional roster spots up to the limit of fifteen that can be filled by rookies until other players join.  Coming off their final college seasons and often still with school commitments, training camp is a quick introduction to the nonstop seasons that those who make rosters can expect to continue to experience.

Now that opening day rosters are set, let’s take a look at a breakdown of their composition.  The late running overseas season has resulted in three additional players being carried to opening day, while Minnesota is only carrying eleven players.  That leaves 146 players, including 107 who were on a roster in some capacity to end last season and another 10 with previous WNBA experience.  That leaves 29 rookies.  Two of the those players were draft picks from previous seasons who have signed for the first time while six were from previous drafts, including some with previous training camp experience.  This draft class provides twenty-one players.  Injuries leave one first round pick unsigned while the other eleven players have made it to opening day.  In the second round, there was one unsigned pick and one international pick, leaving four players who made it through training camp and one who was waived and then claimed by another team, meaning that five of the drafted players were let go by the end of training camp. [Read more…]