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The International Draft Disparity

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February 14, 2018

It may not be the most well-known part of the CBA, but draft rules have become a larger focus in the WNBA in recent years when it comes to international players.  With one of the more highly regarded international prospects in several years becoming eligible for selection in 2018, those who have not thought much about rules differences are considering them now.  An initial bout of confusion came last season when the Lynx signed Cecilia Zandalasini, a free agent who somewhat surprisingly went undrafted in her year of eligibility in 2016.  Since she had at one time considered playing in the NCAA, American WNBA fans were more familiar with her age than other prospects and some were unclear on how she could arrive in the WNBA when other players her age were still in school.  The rules as they are currently constructed make for some tough choices for players with both WNBA aspirations and interest in collegiate play.  One of the top prospects in the 2019 Draft has a difficult decision ahead of her as she will likely be a high pick next year, but will be barred from that draft and the 2020 Draft if she opts to attend college.  Early entry has been a part of men’s college basketball discussions for years, but has not been a talking point on the women’s side.

The Rules:

Draft eligibility is covered on pages 105 and 106 of the current CBA.  Subsection (b)(i) of Section 1 of Article XIII lays out they basic criteria of eligibility as “(b) A player is eligible to be selected in the WNBA Draft if she: (i) will be at least twenty-two (22) years old during the calendar year in which such Draft is held and she either has no remaining intercollegiate eligibility or renounces her remaining intercollegiate eligibility by written notice to the WNBA at least ten (10) days prior to such Draft;”.  While that covers college players, Paragraph’s (d) and (e) provides rules for  international players as “(d) Notwithstanding Section 1(b) above, an international player is eligible to be selected in the WNBA Draft if she will be at least 20 years old during the calendar year in which such Draft is held. (e) For purposes of this Section 1, an “international player” means any person born and residing outside the United States who participates in the game of basketball as an amateur or a professional. An international player who exercises intercollegiate basketball eligibility in the United States shall be subject to the eligibility rules set forth in Section 1(b)(iii) above.”  That means that players are either classified as non-international or international players with the former not being allowed to play in the WNBA until their age 22 year and the latter being allowed as early as their age 20 year. [Read more…]

Calling all Creators; Adidas Commercial Featuring WNBA Players C. Ogwumike and Parker!

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December 22, 2017

Adidas has been in the forefront in their quest to differentiate themselves from other traditional sports brands. They’ve done this by taking an unorthodox approach to who we typically see in ad’s and commercials. Adidas has found a way to reach the “culture” by using musical artists and influencers to spread their message. Most notably, Kanye West, whose Yeezy line has taken the world by storm, and has helped to make Adidas a recurring name in and around pop culture. In their latest spot, Adidas is ‘Calling All Creators’ “Those with the need, to make something new. The game changers, the difference makers, the boundary breakers, the tomorrow takers.” A call for everyone to bring their ideas to the table, to be fearless and to just create! During their round table discussion, featuring some of the most influential stars of sports and pop-culture, you first hear from WNBA player Chiney Ogwumike when she joins in on the conversation stating that “The game will never be the same.” Check out the video below and let us know what you think.

International Names to Know for 2018 WNBA Draft

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November 10, 2017

The international flavor of the draft varies from year to year, but 2018 has been circled as a year to watch since the 1998-born international players emerged on the youth national team scene.  With a number of them now emerging on the club level, there is plenty of time for fans to familiarize themselves with the players that could be late round picks for their team. Several players are in contention for going much earlier in the draft than typical international players.  The main concern with some of these foreign players will be the likelihood of them ever showing up to their WNBA teams, but with the difficulties in finding late round collegiate gems, there will be players worth taking the risk for.  Here are some of players who could hear their name called next year and some lesser known players who could be surprise picks (name, potential position, national team, club team with country listed if not the same as national team):

Vadeeva began her professional career with Sparta&K Moscow in 2014

Maria Vadeeva, 6′ 3″ C, Russia, Dynamo Kursk

The spotlight has been shining on Maria Vadeeva for several years.  Given a big club role early in her career and fast-tracked to the national team, there is no shortage of evidence of what she can do.  A center with a dazzlingly full array of offensive weapons, Vadeeva’s lengthy experience playing with and against top players has given her the toughness that would allow her to transition more quickly should she choose to make the jump immediately.  With the availability of international players on a year to year basis up in the air, it will be interesting to see which team might be willing to use a higher than expected pick on a well known player.

 

Raisa Musina, 6’4” PF, Russia, UMMC Ekaterinburg

Musina currently plays for Polish club CCC Polkowice

While one top Russian prospect has been on the radar for a while, the other has taken a little longer to emerge, but has done so spectacularly.  Raisa Musina’s breakout season came last year when she was given bigger responsibilities on the club level and was able to showcase her skill and physical development.  A change in clubs over the summer has changed her role, but she has developed the ability to be a high level complementary player in addition to the creative abilities she has in the halfcourt.  With no competitive games over the summer for Russia’s senior squad, a team trying to get her to arrive in her draft year could accelerate her play to the next level.

 

Park Ji-Su, 6’5” C, South Korea, KB Stars 

Park is one of the best players in the WKBL this season averaging a double double for KB Stars.

Placed on the national team at an extremely young age, Park Ji-Su has taken turns in and out of the limelight.  South Korea’s scholastic system for young players kept her out of the spotlight during the club season, leaving only glimpses of national team play available to try to discern her improvements.  That changed last season when she turned 18 and joined the professional league, making an immediate impact.  Projected first as a player with defensive potential, Park does have a feathery touch on her jumper and the building blocks for a more complete offensive game in the future.  As a December-born player, she is about as young as any draft prospect out there and should a team try to bring her over at some point, her transition will need to be managed well as she is still working on being more assertive.

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WNBA All-Time Career Stats Leaders

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With the 2017 regular season complete and recent new career marks set, it is a good time to take a look at all of the career lists.  The league has provided the top 30 in the five main counting stats.  Highlighted players appeared during the 2017 season.  After the retirement of Tamika Catchings, no active players are on all five lists as she and DeLisha Milton-Jones are the exclusive members of that list.  Four active players, Alana Beard, Candace Parker, Diana Taurasi, and Lindsay Whalen appear on four lists.

Points:

It was a major season for broken records, and having a new all time scoring leader was certainly part of it as Diana Taurasi leaped past two players to top the top.  Sue Bird’s other milestone gained more recognition, but she reached the top ten in this category and was joined by a resurgent Candice Dupree.  There are two newcomers on the list as Maya Moore and Sylvia Fowles joined, showing the experience of the Lynx as they have six players on this list, nearly half of the active players.  Plenty of movement should be expected on this list next year, especially when Angel McCoughtry makes her return and jumps well past the 5,000 point mark.

Rebounds:

Tamika Catching set the career mark in this category last season, but her retirement has given Rebekkah Brunson the chance to pass her next year after she moved into the top three and surpassed 3,000 rebounds.  Sylvia Fowles and Tina Charles moved into the top ten, but will have to have great seasons again to reach 3,000 next year.  Camille Little is the latest player to join this list.

Assists:

The most recent milestone was Sue Bird’s climb above Ticha Penicheiro for the all time assists mark.  This was certainly viewed as a possibility before the season, but really required a second straight big year to accomplish.  Courtney Vandersloot was a big gainer on this list this year and a similar performance next year should push her well into the top ten.  There are three newcomers on the list as Candace Parker surpassed the 1,000 mark and Renee Montgomery and Kristi Toliver also check in at the bottom.

Steals:

It will be a long time before anyone threatens this career record, but there has been plenty of movement.  Alana Beard passed several players to reach fourth, but is just shy of Sheryl Swoopes with a question of retirement looming.  Sue Bird looks set to move further up this list next season.  Camille Little and Cappie Pondexter are the newest players to join this list.

Blocks:

This is also not currently within reach, but the chase pack is more clearly defined as Sylvia Fowles and Brittney Griner both had strong seasons in this category and could both make it into the top five in a year.  Diana Taurasi is actually still higher on this list than she is on the steals list.  Jessica Breland, Elena Delle Donne, and Alana Beard are the newest players on the list, giving Beard membership on her fourth list.

2017 Team Stats Update

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Now that the regular season has concluded, it is a good time to see how teams stack up in some less traditional statistical categories now that the league is in it’s second year of providing additional information.

Net Rating:

Using offensive and defensive rating is a good way of comparing teams because it equalized the number of possessions being accounted for with both expressed as points per 100 possessions.  The blue bar represents offensive rating while the red bar represents defensive rating.  The difference between the two is the net rating.

The team win-loss records are pretty clear for this season after looking at this chart.  The four non-playoff teams all have substantially worse offenses than the playoff teams.  The top four defenses had the best records in order while the three offenses were among those teams.  Minnesota and Los Angeles continue to lead in both categories while New York continues to rely on a stingy defense to pick up wins.  Dallas and Seattle were the last teams in the playoffs and their solid offenses were betrayed by below average defense.  Atlanta’s defense was very solid, but their lack of offense stifled their attempts to sneak into the playoffs.  San Antonio’s offense continues to lag behind the rest of the league as they finished at the bottom of the standings again.

Change vs. 2016:

With two seasons of statistics, it is now much more simple to compare the two years.  The blue column represents the change in offensive rating, the red column represents the change in defensive rating, and the green column represents the change in net rating from 2016 to 2017.  The changes in wins is included in the team labels.

Looking at the the teams with dramatic changes in fortune between the seasons, it is clear why the number of wins changed.  Connecticut, Dallas, and Washington improved both defensively and offensively.  Indiana’s collapse happened on both sides of the ball, while Chicago and Atlanta saw their decline occur on the defensive end.  Minnesota and Los Angeles were viewed as having dominant regular seasons last year, and this year has seen both of them improve in on court performance, even though there was a negligible difference in their records.

Rebound Percentage:

Separating the two rebound percentage statistics gives a better picture of team at each end of the court.  The x-axis represents the percentage of available offensive rebounds that the team grabs while the y-axis represents the percentage of available defensive rebounds that the team grabs.  Since offensive rebounding is often the result of strategy decisions, measuring defensive rebounding on its own is useful.  Strong defensive rebounding limits the opposition’s chances and gives the team more chances on offense.  Strong offensive rebounding can give the team more chances, but if it is the result of sending more players to crash the board, could result in giving up more transition points.

New York continues to be one of the league’s better rebounding teams, leading in both categories.  Connecticut follows them on the defensive end while Minnesota is the next team on the offensive end while also being among the leaders on the defensive end.  Indiana, Seattle, and Chicago struggle at both ends while the rest of the teams hover around the average defensively, but range widely at the offensive end.  The top five defense rebounding teams also have the top five defense and include the four teams in the league with the best records.  Offensive rebounding does not share the same relationship with offense.

Points Breakdowns:

The first chart is a breakdown of how each team scores its points while the second chart show how each team gives up its points.  The blue bars represent points from two pointers, the red bars show points from three pointers, and the green bars show the percentage of points coming from free throws.  While some of the extremes from other seasons are not replicated in this seasons figures, there are still some interesting observations.  Seattle scores a larger percentage of its points from behind the arc, but it also gives up the largest percentage from distance.  Dallas scores the lowest percentage of its points from two point field goals, but a larger percentage of the points scored on them come from inside the arc than for any other team.

Correlations:

Measuring correlation between various statistics can lead to rethinking of the relationships between them.  It is difficult to determine whether or not these relationships exist, but R-Squared, which ranges from 0 to 1 can determine how strong that relationship is within the data that is available with higher numbers being stronger.  The first chart shows correlations calculated with offensive rating and the second chart shows correlations calculated with defensive rating using team data.

Unsurprisingly, teams with strong assist to turnover ratios at higher offensive ratings.  Assists signify good offense while turnovers prevent more scoring opportunities, which is also shown by teams with higher turnover percentages having lower offensive ratings..  Teams with better defenses also tended to have better offenses, which is likely due to those teams having better personnel among other factors.  What is interesting is that defensive rebounding percentage had a higher correlation than offensive rebounding percentage, although neither had a particularly large R-Squared.  In theory, offensive rebounds should result in more chances to score, but this may represent different strategic choices.  Defensive rebounding could indicate talent disparities, but less energy expended on defense could also boost offense.  Pace and free throw rate have positive, but weak correlations.

It is no surprise that defensive rebounding has a strong correlation with better defense.  The ability to limit opponents to single chances on the offensive end is clearly useful.  Offensive rebounding also had a correlation in the same direction, which could indicate that crashing the boards could help prevent the opposition from getting into their offense quickly.  Block percentage and pace had correlations in direction that would be expected, with teams blocking more shots and teams that played in slower games having better defensive ratings, but neither correlation was particularly strong.

2017 Individual Stats Update

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With the second season of the WNBA’s commitment to providing additional statistics complete, let’s take a look at how players stack up in some of the non-traditional measures.  In order to be counted in these lists, players must have been on the court for 680 possessions, 20 per game that each team plays.  For players who played for multiple team, the last team name is listed, but stats compiled for all teams are included.

Usage:

Usage measures the percentage of her team’s possessions that the player terminates while she is on the court.  It provides two separate measures that help us understand a team’s offense, both showing which players are stars that a team relies on heavily and also identifying players who come off the bench or play fewer possessions, but take shots while they are on the court, which would not show up as much in traditional counting stats.  Players with a usage percentage of at least 23% are included on this list.

No single player may have been more critical to her team than Tina Charles this year and it showed on this list as she was the only player to exceed 30% usage and was the only Liberty player on the list.  She is followed by two teammate duos as the young stars of the Storm and the Mercury’s veterans were leaned on offensively.  Brittney Sykes pushed her way into the rookie of the year statistics as the season progressed and it was clear how she did so as she was given a larger and larger role over time.  Unlike some other instances, the number of players appearing on this list with fewer minutes played was not particularly large as Monique Currie was asked to play a variety of roles on two different teams this season while Ivory Latta was the only player on the list to play less than 20 minutes per game.  Skylar Diggins-Smith made the list as the only Wings player as she was on the court for more possessions than any other player in the league this season.

Effective Field Goal Percentage:

Effective field goal percentage helps nullify the advantage that post players and others who shoot closer to the basket have on players who shoot more of their shots from distance.  Three point shots are given more value to account for the additional point that they provide.  Players who have an effective field goal percentage above 55% are included on this list.

Adding points for three pointers did not change the leader in this category as Sylvia Fowles stayed on top without attempting a shot from behind the arc.  Crystal Langhorne was behind her while almost exclusively operating from two point range.  The first player with a reputation as a sniper checked in at third as Allie Quigley’s percentage clearly benefits from this adjustment.  Stefanie Dolson and Nneka Ogwumike get additional credit from this system as they mix a comfort of operating in the paint with an ability to stretch the floor.

Free Throw Rate:

Free throw rate measures the number of free throws attempted as a percentage of field goals attempted.  Players with at least 40% as many free throw attempts as field goal attempts are included on this list.  Players who rank high on this list tend to be either post players or slashers.

Five players attempt at least half as many free throws as field goals.  While Emma Cannon is a newcomer to the league, the other four are certainly no strangers to the list.  Alyssa Thomas just under 50% last year, but the other three were above and all in the top five on that list.  Shavonte Zellous, Karima Christmas-Kelly, and Brittney Griner all increased their percentages from 2016.  While those at the top of the list had higher rates than last season, the number of players at 42% and over decreased as only 18 players were at that mark after 24 players hit that rate a year ago.

Rebound Percentage:

Rebound percentage statistics help isolate multiple factors, not just controlling for minutes on the court.  Offensive and defensive rebounding are separate, which helps account for team philosophy and player roles.  The basis of measurement is available rebounds, which mitigates the effect of different field goal percentages.  Players who grabbed at least 20% of available rebounds on the defensive end made that list and players who grabbed at least 8% of available offensive rebounds made the other list.

Separate statistics are not needed to show that Jonquel Jones was dominant on the boards this season.  She grabbed nearly a third of her opponent’s misses, more than five percentage points above any other player while also leading in the offensive category as she nearly doubled her defensive rebounding rate from last year with a big increase in minutes.  The split better showcases Candace Parker’s rebounding as she was second on the defensive end, but not on the list for the offensive end where the Sparks were not among the league leaders, perhaps reflecting team philosophy.  Other Mystics acquisitions deservedly had more fanfare, but this statistic shows another key move as Krystal Thomas was in the top three in both categories, one of nine players players on both lists as Tianna Hawkins also helped the Mystics rebound well.  Sylvia Fowles and Rebekkah Brunson are both in the top ten of total rebounds all time, so it was no surprise to see them as the other pair of teammates to appear on both lists.

All Star Break Team Stats Update

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Net Rating:

Let’s take a look at how teams stack up statistically at the All Star Break.  Teams are sorted in order of offensive rating with the blue bar representing points per 100 possessions scored and the red bar representing points given up per 100 possessions.  It is no surprise that Minnesota dominated in both categories with Los Angeles also scoring well.  At the other end of the spectrum, San Antonio struggles offensively compared to every other team.  New York continues to enjoy a strong defensive record while Indiana and Dallas bring up the rear.

Comparison to 2016:

With coaching and personnel changes in the offseason, let’s take a look at the difference in each category compared to the end of last season.  The blue bar represents the change in offensive rating while the red bar represents the change in defensive rating with a positive number meaning fewer points given up per possession compared to last season.  The green bar combines the two and measures change in net rating.

Minnesota led the league in both categories last season and their figures so far this season are even better than those marks.  Los Angeles has increased their offense, but their defense has regressed, leading to an overall decline in net rating.  The improvement of Connecticut and Washington in the standings can be seen clearly with their increases in both categories this year with Dallas also seeing positives in both numbers.  Indiana on the other hand, has struggled in both offense and defense with such important changes.  San Antonio may have the worst offense in the league at this point, but it is actually an improvement from last season’s mark, which was even further away from the second worst offense.  Chicago had the second best offense a year ago, but now have the second worst as an improvement on defense was nowhere near enough to offset that on a net basis. [Read more…]

Candace Parker Walks the Red Carpet at the Inaugural NBA Awards Show (Video)

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June 27, 2017

2016 WNBA Champion Candace Parker was in attendance at the Inaugural NBA Awards last night in New York City. Parker presented alongside Vince Carter during the show. Parker has been a fixture at awards shows during her decorated career and does so with grace while looking amazing. She continues to represent the WNBA with class. Look for her again during the 2017 ESPY awards where she is nominated for Best WNBA Player. Check out the video below to see what Candace was most looking forward to about the awards show.

The Third Round Conundrum… Removing the WNBA Draft Third Round

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Roster space is at a premium for WNBA teams, making it a tough road for rookies to make the roster.  While first round picks can generally expect to make the team and get a chance in the regular season, the record is much spottier for second round picks with third round picks having an even longer shot to make it to the season.  In the seven previous drafts of the twelve team era, only four players have made it to a second season on their initial contract without being waived, which is only one more than the number of draft picks in that time that have been voided due to teams picking ineligible players.  Only thirteen of the players ended up playing a game in the year they were drafted on their initial contracts.  Given that record, are there changes that can be made for the future?

Removing the third round:

If third round picks rarely make it through training camp, is there an argument for reducing the size of the draft in the next CBA negotiations?  If players have very little chance at surviving training camp, then perhaps they should be allowed to choose which training camp to attend like undrafted players instead of being restricted to one team.  That would allow the player to evaluate different team situations and pick a spot where she would best be in a position to earn a spot on the final roster.  There are arguments for keeping the draft at least at the current length.  A team is more likely to be invested in a player if they used a draft pick on her than if she was undrafted, even though the pick is a sunk cost.  Having more draft choices encourages teams to scout further, possibly helping them identify less heralded players who can make an impact, especially from lesser known schools.  While the picks themselves may not have real value, they still create additional assets that can be used as trade currency to help teams make other moves.

Changing draft rights rules:

The issue of pick value is not due to the lack of quality of players available.  The limited roster spots force teams to make tough decisions when it comes to the final players who make the team.  Many current WNBA players have been waived in their career only to return and prove themselves to belong in the league.  Are there changes that could be made that could give the picks more value and reward teams for making good selections?  One of the other uses of late round picks is for players who are unable to sign a contract for their rookie season, often a result of an injury.  In the past eight drafts, eleven third round picks from college did not sign a contract in their draft year.  Teams can benefit from taking injured or otherwise unavailable players because those players usually fall in draft position compared to their projected talent level due to their immediate unavailability.  This approach can be risky because of how draft rights are set up as college players can choose to re-enter the draft in the next year if they do not sign any kind of professional contract, although this provision has not been tested yet. [Read more…]

The Annual WNBA Roster Crunch

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With the start of another WNBA season comes the annual race for players to claim a very limited number of roster spots.  After accounting for returning veterans, rookies have to immediately prove that they can contribute to their teams.  Fortunately, not all veterans arrive in training camp when it starts due to overseas play so there are additional roster spots up to the limit of fifteen that can be filled by rookies until other players join.  Coming off their final college seasons and often still with school commitments, training camp is a quick introduction to the nonstop seasons that those who make rosters can expect to continue to experience.

Now that opening day rosters are set, let’s take a look at a breakdown of their composition.  The late running overseas season has resulted in three additional players being carried to opening day, while Minnesota is only carrying eleven players.  That leaves 146 players, including 107 who were on a roster in some capacity to end last season and another 10 with previous WNBA experience.  That leaves 29 rookies.  Two of the those players were draft picks from previous seasons who have signed for the first time while six were from previous drafts, including some with previous training camp experience.  This draft class provides twenty-one players.  Injuries leave one first round pick unsigned while the other eleven players have made it to opening day.  In the second round, there was one unsigned pick and one international pick, leaving four players who made it through training camp and one who was waived and then claimed by another team, meaning that five of the drafted players were let go by the end of training camp. [Read more…]